Bitcoin mining difficulty
Bitcoin's difficulty sets how hard it is to find a block. The network adjusts it every 2,016 blocks, about every two weeks, so that blocks keep arriving about every ten minutes however much hashrate joins or leaves. Every figure here comes from SoloLuck's own Bitcoin node.
Bitcoin's mining difficulty is 140.58T at block 973,599. It adjusts next in 129 blocks, about 20 hours from now (around 29 Oct 2026); at this epoch's pace so far it would rise about 6.1%.
Every adjustment since 2009
482 adjustments from the genesis block on 3 Jan 2009 to the epoch that began on 16 Oct 2026, on a logarithmic scale: each gridline is a thousand times the one below.
What it means for a home miner
One Bitaxe Gamma, about 1.2 TH/s, would expect a block about once every 16,000 years at today's difficulty. Twenty-six adjustments earlier, at the epoch that began on 16 Oct 2025, the difficulty was 146.72T and the same board's expected wait was about 17,000 years. Difficulty fell 4% between the two, and every machine's expected wait shrank by the same 4%: difficulty is the one dial that moves everyone's odds together.
A higher difficulty does not change how a miner finds a block, only how rarely: each hash is still a fresh draw, and an expected wait is an average, not a countdown. The calculator runs the same arithmetic for any machine at today's difficulty, and Solo Legends lists the solo blocks found anyway, most of them by machines people run at home.
The last 26 adjustments
| Epoch began | First block | Difficulty | Change | Avg block time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | ||||
| 16 Oct | 971,712 | 140.58T | +5.9% | — |
| 3 Oct | 969,696 | 132.72T | −0.03% | 9:27 |
| 19 Sep | 967,680 | 132.76T | +4.2% | 10:00 |
| 5 Sep | 965,664 | 127.45T | +1.3% | 9:36 |
| 23 Aug | 963,648 | 125.81T | −1.3% | 9:52 |
| 8 Aug | 961,632 | 127.48T | +1.0% | 10:09 |
| 25 Jul | 959,616 | 126.23T | −0.7% | 9:54 |
| 11 Jul | 957,600 | 127.17T | −5.0% | 10:05 |
| 27 Jun | 955,584 | 133.87T | +7.2% | 10:32 |
| 14 Jun | 953,568 | 124.93T | −10.1% | 9:20 |
| 29 May | 951,552 | 138.96T | +1.7% | 11:08 |
| 15 May | 949,536 | 136.61T | +3.1% | 9:50 |
| 2 May | 947,520 | 132.47T | −2.3% | 9:42 |
| 17 Apr | 945,504 | 135.59T | −2.4% | 10:15 |
| 3 Apr | 943,488 | 138.97T | +3.9% | 10:15 |
| 20 Mar | 941,472 | 133.79T | −7.8% | 9:38 |
| 5 Mar | 939,456 | 145.04T | +0.4% | 10:51 |
| 19 Feb | 937,440 | 144.40T | +14.7% | 9:57 |
| 7 Feb | 935,424 | 125.86T | −11.2% | 8:43 |
| 22 Jan | 933,408 | 141.67T | −3.3% | 11:16 |
| 8 Jan | 931,392 | 146.47T | −1.2% | 10:20 |
| 2025 | ||||
| 25 Dec | 929,376 | 148.26T | +0.04% | 10:08 |
| 11 Dec | 927,360 | 148.20T | −0.7% | 10:00 |
| 27 Nov | 925,344 | 149.30T | −2.0% | 10:04 |
| 12 Nov | 923,328 | 152.27T | −2.4% | 10:12 |
| 29 Oct | 921,312 | 155.97T | +6.3% | 10:15 |
Avg block time is the time between an epoch's first block and the next epoch's first block, divided by 2,016, in minutes and seconds; the epoch in progress shows a dash until it ends. Under 10:00 means blocks came faster than the target, so the next adjustment rose.
Take the data
Every adjustment since 2009 as open data: epochs.json or epochs.csv. Each row holds the epoch, its first block, the time that block was mined, the difficulty, the change from the epoch before and the epoch's average block time. Licensed CC BY 4.0: use it anywhere, including commercially, as long as you say where it came from.
How these figures are worked out
The history is the header of the first block of every 2,016-block epoch, read from our node with getblockheader; a new epoch is added as soon as it begins. The next-adjustment estimate divides the 600-second target by this epoch's average block time so far. It moves with every block, and block timestamps can be off by a couple of hours, so treat it as a guide: the real change is set at the retarget block.
Quick answers
When is the next Bitcoin difficulty adjustment?
At block 973,728, 129 blocks from now: about 20 hours at this epoch's pace (around 29 Oct 2026). Bitcoin adjusts its difficulty every 2,016 blocks.
How is the next difficulty change estimated?
From this epoch's pace so far: 600 seconds divided by the average time between its blocks. If blocks have come faster than every ten minutes, difficulty rises by about that ratio. The estimate moves with every block; the real change is only known at the retarget block, and Bitcoin caps any one change at a factor of four.
Why does difficulty matter for solo mining?
A machine's expected time to find a block is difficulty times 2^32 divided by its hashrate, so when difficulty rises 3%, every miner's expected wait grows 3%. That expected time is an average, not a countdown.
Where does this data come from?
From SoloLuck's own Bitcoin node: the header of the first block of every 2,016-block epoch since the genesis block, published here as open data under CC BY 4.0.