Solo mining odds calculator

A Bitaxe Gamma (1.2 TH/s) solo mining Bitcoin takes about 15.1 thousand years, on average, to find one block at today’s difficulty of 132.72T.

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Enter your miner's hashrate (or pick your gear) to see your real solo odds at the current Bitcoin network difficulty. Honest math — solo mining is high-variance, not a salary. If you'd rather trade the lottery for a steady drip, read solo vs pooled mining first.

Or pick your gear:

Expected time to your block

≈ 15.1k yr

Your share of the network

1 in 702.3 million

Expected yield

57 sats/day

Figures above are for a Bitaxe Gamma at 1.2 TH/s and the current network difficulty of 132.72T — enter your own hashrate to replace them.

A block can land tomorrow or in a thousand years — the odds are the same every block. That's solo.

The honest trade — steady drip vs. the lottery

Your hashrate has one expected value; the only choice is the shape you take it in. An FPPS pool averages it into a guaranteed daily drip. Solo refuses to average — nothing for years, then everything at once. Same number, two faces — shown here for a Bitaxe Gamma at 1.2 TH/s, and recomputed live from any hashrate you enter above:

The steady road — FPPS pool

57 sats/day

≈ $0.05/day · $1.47/month at today’s price

Paid every day whether any block is found or not
one whole block reward at this drip: ≈ 15.1k yr — the exact same wait as the lottery
Typical FPPS pool fee 0–4% comes off this figure

The lottery road — true solo

1 in 702.3 million per block

prize if it hits: 3.12500 BTC ≈ $265,103 — 0% fee, paid to your address

expected wait ≈ 15.1k yr — but every block is a fresh, independent draw
Most days — most years — pay exactly zero
Identical expected value; variance is the only difference

Electricity is left out on purpose: it costs the same on both roads. The drip figure is gross expected value at the current difficulty and live block reward (subsidy + template fees); real FPPS pools quote their own fee on top. If the steady road reads like income you would miss, take it — this page would rather lose you to an FPPS pool than sell you a bad ticket.

Average time to a block, by miner

Every major BTC miner — from a Bitaxe on your desk to a flagship data-centre ASIC — and how long, on average, each would take to solo a block at today's difficulty. Each name links to the maker's official site. These are means over infinite time — a real block is a single coin-flip that can come far sooner or far later. More machines multiply your probability per block; nothing else does.

Miner	Hashrate	Avg time to a block	Your share
NerdMiner v2	78 kH/s	≈ 231571.2 million yr	1 in 10804.9 trillion
Bitaxe Ultra	0.5 TH/s	≈ 36.1k yr	1 in 1.7 billion
Bitaxe Supra	0.7 TH/s	≈ 25.8k yr	1 in 1.2 billion
Bitaxe Gamma	1.2 TH/s	≈ 15.1k yr	1 in 702.3 million
Bitaxe GT 801	2.15 TH/s	≈ 8.4k yr	1 in 392.0 million
Avalon Nano 3	4 TH/s	≈ 4.5k yr	1 in 210.7 million
Bitaxe Naja Duo	4.4 TH/s	≈ 4.1k yr	1 in 191.5 million
NerdQAxe++	4.8 TH/s	≈ 3.8k yr	1 in 175.6 million
Avalon Nano 3S	6 TH/s	≈ 3.0k yr	1 in 140.5 million
Bitaxe Gamma Hex	8.4 TH/s	≈ 2.2k yr	1 in 100.3 million
FutureBit Apollo II	9 TH/s	≈ 2.0k yr	1 in 93.6 million
NerdOCTAXE	9.6 TH/s	≈ 1.9k yr	1 in 87.8 million
Antminer S9	13.5 TH/s	≈ 1.3k yr	1 in 62.4 million
Antminer S17 Pro	53 TH/s	≈ 341 yr	1 in 15.9 million
Avalon Q	90 TH/s	≈ 201 yr	1 in 9.4 million
Antminer S19j Pro	104 TH/s	≈ 174 yr	1 in 8.1 million
Whatsminer M30S++	112 TH/s	≈ 161 yr	1 in 7.5 million
Whatsminer M50	114 TH/s	≈ 158 yr	1 in 7.4 million
Antminer S19k Pro	120 TH/s	≈ 151 yr	1 in 7.0 million
Antminer S19 XP	140 TH/s	≈ 129 yr	1 in 6.0 million
Canaan Avalon A1466	150 TH/s	≈ 120 yr	1 in 5.6 million
Whatsminer M60	172 TH/s	≈ 105 yr	1 in 4.9 million
Canaan Avalon A1566	185 TH/s	≈ 98 yr	1 in 4.6 million
Antminer S21	200 TH/s	≈ 90 yr	1 in 4.2 million
Bitdeer SEALMINER A2	226 TH/s	≈ 80 yr	1 in 3.7 million
Antminer S21 Pro	234 TH/s	≈ 77 yr	1 in 3.6 million
Antminer S21 XP	270 TH/s	≈ 67 yr	1 in 3.1 million
Whatsminer M66S	298 TH/s	≈ 61 yr	1 in 2.8 million

Computed live at the current network difficulty of 132.72T. “Avg time” is the statistical mean — real luck swings enormously either way, which is the whole point of solo.

How the math works

A block needs, on average, difficulty × 2³² hashes.
Expected time = (difficulty × 2³²) ÷ your hashrate.
Your share of the network = your hashrate ÷ total network hashrate — that is your chance on any given block.
Every block is independent: a near-miss does not make the next one likelier. There is no “due”.

The probability formula, worked

Two lines of maths sit under every number on this page. Blocks arrive as a Poisson process, so the wait between them is exponential — which is exactly why a mean measured in thousands of years does not mean you cannot win tomorrow.

T = difficulty × 2³² ÷ hashrate
P(at least one block in t) = 1 − e^−t/T

T is the mean seconds between your own blocks; t is however long you intend to mine. That is the entire model — there is no other term, and no pool can change either one.

Worked at the network difficulty right now, 132,716,002,350,731:

Miner	Mean time to a block (T)	Chance on any one day	Chance in a year
Bitaxe Gamma 1.2 TH/s	15,000 years	1 in 5,500,000	1 in 15,000
Antminer S21 Pro 234 TH/s	77 years	1 in 28,000	1 in 78

Check it by hand: 1.2×10¹² H/s against difficulty 132,716,002,350,731 gives T = 132,716,002,350,731 × 2³² ÷ 1.2×10¹² seconds. Every odds line on our record of solo-mined blocks is recomputed with this same formula from the difficulty at that block's own height, and the open dataset ships the resulting numbers for all of them, so the arithmetic is checkable rather than asserted.

Embed this calculator on your site

Run a mining blog, a YouTube channel page or a hardware shop? Take it — free, no signup, no tracking, always the current network difficulty. The credit line is inside the widget itself, so it travels with it. Paste this anywhere:

<iframe id="sololuck-calc" src="https://sololuck.io/embed/calculator" title="Bitcoin solo-mining odds calculator" width="100%" height="520" style="border:1px solid #2a3347;border-radius:12px;max-width:100%" loading="lazy"></iframe>
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The script just resizes the frame to fit — the widget is about 256 px tall on a desktop and 514 px on a narrow phone, so no single fixed height suits both. Drop it and the widget still works at the 520 px fallback. Light page? Use /embed/calculator?theme=light, or ?theme=auto to follow each reader's own setting. Most blog platforms (WordPress, Ghost, Discourse) need none of this — just paste this page's URL on its own line and oEmbed does the rest.

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Does the pool or its location change my odds?

No. Your block odds depend only on your hashrate versus the network and are identical on every pool on Earth. What a pool changes is fee, payout custody, and how much work you waste to latency — not your chance. See the honest comparison and the latency data.

So is solo mining worth it?

As steady income, almost never — the expected value is dominated by variance. As a cheap, low-power, all-or-nothing long shot that pays the entire block reward straight to your own address if it hits, that is exactly the appeal. SoloLuck is a non-custodial place to take that shot, open to miners anywhere, with a true 0% fee — finders keepers.

Ready to try? Copy the config from /setup, watch the pool on /status, check every claim on /verify, and watch your best share climb the high scores. Mine to your own address — that is what makes it truly solo.

Start mining →High scores

Not ready to point a miner yet? Join Telegram for block & record alerts — no rig required.

FAQ

How long does it take to find a Bitcoin block solo?

On average, expected time = (network difficulty x 2^32) / your hashrate. For a single Bitaxe (~1.2 TH/s) that mean is on the order of thousands of years at current difficulty; for an S19-class ASIC it's still many years. A block is a single random event, so it can come far sooner or far later than the average.

What are my odds of solving a block with a Bitaxe?

Your chance on any given block equals your hashrate divided by the total network hashrate - a tiny fraction for a Bitaxe. It's a lottery ticket: the prize is the whole block reward, but the odds are very long. Running more machines multiplies your tickets.

Should I solo mine or join an FPPS pool?

Both have the same expected value for a given hashrate. FPPS converts it into a small guaranteed daily payout; solo concentrates it into a rare whole-block win. If the steady payout is income you would actually miss, choose FPPS; if it is pocket change, solo turns it into a real long-odds shot at an entire block. Many miners do both: the big rigs on a steady pool, a small rig on solo as the lottery arm.

What are the odds of mining a Bitcoin block solo?

It depends entirely on your hashrate against the network, and nothing else. At the network difficulty right now, a 1.2 TH/s Bitaxe has about a 1 in 5,500,000 chance on any given day and about a 1 in 15,000 chance over a whole year; a 234 TH/s S21 Pro is roughly 200 times better on both. No pool, location or software changes those numbers - only more hashrate does.

What is the formula for solo mining probability?

Two lines. First the mean time between your own blocks: T = difficulty x 2^32 / hashrate, in seconds. Then the probability of at least one block in any period t: P = 1 - e^(-t/T). Blocks arrive as a Poisson process, so the wait is exponential rather than a countdown - which is why a mean of thousands of years still leaves a real, computable chance of winning tomorrow. Every odds figure on this site is that formula and nothing else.

What is my chance of finding a block per day?

Take T = difficulty x 2^32 / hashrate, then P = 1 - e^(-86400/T). At the current difficulty a 1.2 TH/s miner is around 1 in 5,500,000 per day. The important part is that it is the same every day: a near miss yesterday does not improve today, and a long dry spell does not make you due.

Does this calculator work for other coins?

Yes, if you use that coin's own difficulty and your hashrate on that coin's algorithm. Any chain that inherited Bitcoin's difficulty convention - Bitcoin Cash, DigiByte, Litecoin, Dogecoin and most others - uses the same difficulty x 2^32 hashes per block, so both formulas carry over unchanged. What does not carry over is the hashrate: a scrypt or Scrypt-ASIC figure is not comparable to a SHA-256 one, so never put a Dogecoin hashrate against a Bitcoin difficulty.

Ready to start solo mining?

Paste your address and copy the config from /setup, find your port and difficulty floor on /connect, watch the pool on /status, and check every claim on /verify. Mine to your own address — that is what makes it truly solo.

Start Mining Calculate Your Odds

Not ready to point a miner yet? Join Telegram for block & record alerts — no rig required.