Solo mining odds calculator
Solo mining odds calculator
Enter your miner's hashrate (or pick your gear) to see your real solo odds at the current Bitcoin network difficulty. Honest math — solo mining is high-variance, not a salary. If you'd rather trade the lottery for a steady drip, read solo vs pooled mining first.
A block can land tomorrow or in a thousand years — the odds are the same every block. That's solo.
The honest trade — steady drip vs. the lottery
Your hashrate has one expected value; the only choice is the shape you take it in. An FPPS pool averages it into a guaranteed daily drip. Solo refuses to average — nothing for years, then everything at once. Same number, two faces, computed live from the hashrate you entered above:
- Paid every day whether any block is found or not
- —
- Typical FPPS pool fee 0–4% comes off this figure
- —
- Most days — most years — pay exactly zero
- Identical expected value; variance is the only difference
Electricity is left out on purpose: it costs the same on both roads. The drip figure is gross expected value at the current difficulty and live block reward (subsidy + template fees); real FPPS pools quote their own fee on top. If the steady road reads like income you would miss, take it — this page would rather lose you to an FPPS pool than sell you a bad ticket.
Average time to a block, by miner
Every major BTC miner — from a Bitaxe on your desk to a flagship data-centre ASIC — and how long, on average, each would take to solo a block at today's difficulty. Each name links to the maker's official site. These are means over infinite time — a real block is a single coin-flip that can come far sooner or far later. More machines multiply your probability per block; nothing else does.
| Miner | Hashrate | Avg time to a block | Your share |
|---|---|---|---|
| NerdMiner v2 | 78 kH/s | ≈ 222434.9 million yr | 1 in 12971.9 trillion |
| Bitaxe Ultra | 0.5 TH/s | ≈ 34.7k yr | 1 in 2.0 billion |
| Bitaxe Supra | 0.7 TH/s | ≈ 24.8k yr | 1 in 1.4 billion |
| Bitaxe Gamma | 1.2 TH/s | ≈ 14.5k yr | 1 in 843.2 million |
| Avalon Nano 3 | 4 TH/s | ≈ 4.3k yr | 1 in 253.0 million |
| NerdQAxe++ | 4.8 TH/s | ≈ 3.6k yr | 1 in 210.8 million |
| Avalon Nano 3S | 6 TH/s | ≈ 2.9k yr | 1 in 168.6 million |
| FutureBit Apollo II | 9 TH/s | ≈ 1.9k yr | 1 in 112.4 million |
| NerdOCTAXE | 9.6 TH/s | ≈ 1.8k yr | 1 in 105.4 million |
| Antminer S9 | 13.5 TH/s | ≈ 1.3k yr | 1 in 74.9 million |
| Antminer S17 Pro | 53 TH/s | ≈ 327 yr | 1 in 19.1 million |
| Avalon Q | 90 TH/s | ≈ 193 yr | 1 in 11.2 million |
| Antminer S19j Pro | 104 TH/s | ≈ 167 yr | 1 in 9.7 million |
| Whatsminer M30S++ | 112 TH/s | ≈ 155 yr | 1 in 9.0 million |
| Whatsminer M50 | 114 TH/s | ≈ 152 yr | 1 in 8.9 million |
| Antminer S19k Pro | 120 TH/s | ≈ 145 yr | 1 in 8.4 million |
| Antminer S19 XP | 140 TH/s | ≈ 124 yr | 1 in 7.2 million |
| Canaan Avalon A1466 | 150 TH/s | ≈ 116 yr | 1 in 6.7 million |
| Whatsminer M60 | 172 TH/s | ≈ 101 yr | 1 in 5.9 million |
| Canaan Avalon A1566 | 185 TH/s | ≈ 94 yr | 1 in 5.5 million |
| Antminer S21 | 200 TH/s | ≈ 87 yr | 1 in 5.1 million |
| Bitdeer SEALMINER A2 | 226 TH/s | ≈ 77 yr | 1 in 4.5 million |
| Antminer S21 Pro | 234 TH/s | ≈ 74 yr | 1 in 4.3 million |
| Antminer S21 XP | 270 TH/s | ≈ 64 yr | 1 in 3.7 million |
| Whatsminer M66S | 298 TH/s | ≈ 58 yr | 1 in 3.4 million |
Computed live at the current network difficulty of 127.48T. “Avg time” is the statistical mean — real luck swings enormously either way, which is the whole point of solo.
How the math works
- A block needs, on average, difficulty × 232 hashes.
- Expected time = (difficulty × 232) ÷ your hashrate.
- Your share of the network = your hashrate ÷ total network hashrate — that is your chance on any given block.
- Every block is independent: a near-miss does not make the next one likelier. There is no “due”.
Embed this calculator on your site
Run a mining blog, a YouTube channel page or a hardware shop? Embed this live calculator free — it always uses the current network difficulty, dark-themed, no tracking. Copy both parts (the credit line below the widget is the licence):
Preview: sololuck.io/embed/calculator
Does the pool or its location change my odds?
No. Your block odds depend only on your hashrate versus the network and are identical on every pool on Earth. What a pool changes is fee, payout custody, and how much work you waste to latency — not your chance. See the honest comparison and the latency data.
So is solo mining worth it?
As steady income, almost never — the expected value is dominated by variance. As a cheap, low-power, all-or-nothing long shot that pays the entire block reward straight to your own address if it hits, that is exactly the appeal. SoloLuck is a non-custodial place to take that shot, hosted in Southeast Asia, with a true 0% fee — finders keepers.
Ready to try? Copy the config from /setup, watch the pool on /status, check every claim on /verify, and watch your best share climb the high scores. Mine to your own address — that is what makes it truly solo.
Not ready to point a miner yet? Join Telegram for block & record alerts — no rig required.
FAQ
How long does it take to find a Bitcoin block solo?
On average, expected time = (network difficulty x 2^32) / your hashrate. For a single Bitaxe (~1.2 TH/s) that mean is on the order of thousands of years at current difficulty; for an S19-class ASIC it's still many years. A block is a single random event, so it can come far sooner or far later than the average.
What are my odds of solving a block with a Bitaxe?
Your chance on any given block equals your hashrate divided by the total network hashrate - a tiny fraction for a Bitaxe. It's a lottery ticket: the prize is the whole block reward, but the odds are very long. Running more machines multiplies your tickets.
Should I solo mine or join an FPPS pool?
Both have the same expected value for a given hashrate. FPPS converts it into a small guaranteed daily payout; solo concentrates it into a rare whole-block win. If the steady payout is income you would actually miss, choose FPPS; if it is pocket change, solo turns it into a real long-odds shot at an entire block. Many miners do both: the big rigs on a steady pool, a small rig on solo as the lottery arm.