How long does it take to find a Bitcoin block solo?

On average, expected time = (network difficulty x 2^32) / your hashrate. For a single Bitaxe (~1.2 TH/s) that mean is on the order of thousands of years at current difficulty; for an S19-class ASIC it's still many years. A block is a single random event, so it can come far sooner or far later than the average.

What are my odds of solving a block with a Bitaxe?

Your chance on any given block equals your hashrate divided by the total network hashrate - a tiny fraction for a Bitaxe. It's a lottery ticket: the prize is the whole block reward, but the odds are very long. Running more machines multiplies your tickets.

Does choosing a pool change my solo mining odds?

No. Solo block odds depend only on your hashrate versus the network and are identical on every pool. A pool only affects fee, payout custody, and stale-share waste from latency - never your probability of finding a block.

Is solo mining Bitcoin worth it?

As a way to earn steady income, generally no - the expected value is dominated by variance. As a low-cost, low-power lottery ticket that pays the full block reward to your own address if you win, it can be worth it for the fun and the non-custodial upside.

SoloLuck

Solo mining odds calculator

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Solo mining odds calculator

Enter your miner's hashrate (or pick your gear) to see your real solo odds at the current Bitcoin network difficulty. Honest math — solo is a lottery, not a salary.

Or pick your gear:

Expected time to your block

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Your share of the network

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Expected yield

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A block can land tomorrow or in a thousand years — the odds are the same every block. That's solo.

Average time to a block, by miner

Every major BTC miner — from a Bitaxe on your desk to a flagship data-centre ASIC — and how long, on average, each would take to solo a block at today's difficulty. Each name links to the maker's official site. These are means over infinite time — a real block is a single coin-flip that can come far sooner or far later. More machines multiply your tickets; nothing else does.

Miner	Hashrate	Avg time to a block	Your share
NerdMiner v2	78 kH/s	≈ 233584.5 million yr	1 in 13170.2 trillion
Bitaxe Ultra	0.5 TH/s	≈ 36.4k yr	1 in 2.1 billion
Bitaxe Supra	0.7 TH/s	≈ 26.0k yr	1 in 1.5 billion
Bitaxe Gamma	1.2 TH/s	≈ 15.2k yr	1 in 856.1 million
Avalon Nano 3	4 TH/s	≈ 4.6k yr	1 in 256.8 million
NerdQAxe++	4.8 TH/s	≈ 3.8k yr	1 in 214.0 million
Avalon Nano 3S	6 TH/s	≈ 3.0k yr	1 in 171.2 million
FutureBit Apollo II	9 TH/s	≈ 2.0k yr	1 in 114.1 million
Antminer S9	13.5 TH/s	≈ 1.3k yr	1 in 76.1 million
Antminer S17 Pro	53 TH/s	≈ 344 yr	1 in 19.4 million
Avalon Q	90 TH/s	≈ 202 yr	1 in 11.4 million
Antminer S19j Pro	104 TH/s	≈ 175 yr	1 in 9.9 million
Whatsminer M30S++	112 TH/s	≈ 163 yr	1 in 9.2 million
Whatsminer M50	114 TH/s	≈ 160 yr	1 in 9.0 million
Antminer S19k Pro	120 TH/s	≈ 152 yr	1 in 8.6 million
Antminer S19 XP	140 TH/s	≈ 130 yr	1 in 7.3 million
Canaan Avalon A1466	150 TH/s	≈ 121 yr	1 in 6.8 million
Whatsminer M60	172 TH/s	≈ 106 yr	1 in 6.0 million
Canaan Avalon A1566	185 TH/s	≈ 98 yr	1 in 5.6 million
Antminer S21	200 TH/s	≈ 91 yr	1 in 5.1 million
Bitdeer SEALMINER A2	226 TH/s	≈ 81 yr	1 in 4.5 million
Antminer S21 Pro	234 TH/s	≈ 78 yr	1 in 4.4 million
Antminer S21 XP	270 TH/s	≈ 67 yr	1 in 3.8 million
Whatsminer M66S	298 TH/s	≈ 61 yr	1 in 3.4 million

Computed live at the current network difficulty of 133.87T. “Avg time” is the statistical mean — real luck swings enormously either way, which is the whole point of solo.

How the math works

A block needs, on average, difficulty × 2³² hashes.
Expected time = (difficulty × 2³²) ÷ your hashrate.
Your share of the network = your hashrate ÷ total network hashrate — that is your chance on any given block.
Every block is independent: a near-miss does not make the next one likelier. There is no “due”.

Does the pool or its location change my odds?

No. Your block odds depend only on your hashrate versus the network and are identical on every pool on Earth. What a pool changes is fee, payout custody, and how much work you waste to latency — not your chance. See the honest comparison and the latency data.

So is solo mining worth it?

As steady income, almost never — the expected value is dominated by variance. As a cheap, low-power lottery ticket that pays the entire block reward straight to your own address if it hits, that is exactly the appeal. SoloLuck is a non-custodial place to hold that ticket, hosted in Asia, with a flat 2% taken only on a block you actually solve. Point a miner, watch your best share climb the high scores, and take your shot.

Start mining →High scores

Ready to take a ticket?

Paste your address and copy the config from /setup, watch the pool on /status, and check every claim on /verify. Mine to your own address — that is what makes it truly solo.

Get the setup config →

Not ready to point a miner yet? Run your gear through the odds calculator, or join Telegram for block & record alerts — no rig required.

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